By Deborah Thoben
Anyone in human resources will tell you that there’s a huge truck driver shortage. Anyone in tech will tell you it’s only a matter of time until truck drivers will be replaced by autonomous trucks. According to Mike Reid, the Chief Operating Officer at Embark Trucks, “Anyone employed as a driver today will be able to retire as a driver.“ In other words, Reid strongly feels the need for truck drivers will continue for many years to come. Interestingly enough, Mr. Reid heads up one of the country’s top developers of software for self-driving trucks – Embark.1
Mr. Reid foresees autonomous trucking as a gradual rollout over the next 30 years. New semis will need to be built and existing trucks will need to be retrofitted to drive independently. While “Autopilot” driving will be used on highways, most players in the self-driving market consistently state that there will still continue to be a need for lead drivers on highways, training drivers, and drivers to take over in congested situations such as cities, construction zones and exits. Ultimately, the federal government via the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration will need to establish rules to safely accommodate
80,000-pound autonomous trucks on U.S. highways.2
Most recently, active test situations have been conducted under favorable conditions on mostly flat highways during temperate seasons. Once harsh weather elements such as snow and ice and difficult terrain are introduced, Reid feels there will be an even greater need for training
drivers to “teach” the AI software how to react appropriately. Embark has professional drivers
sitting at the wheel of each of their trucks actively monitoring the road, supervising the
system, and preparing to take control whenever they think the truck is
responding too slowly to an impending situation. Embark has run millions
of miles "training” in this manner.
In a win-win scenario, Reid feels that autonomous driving and AI driver training might mesh well with current demographics. Older drivers are retiring or are being threatened by mandated retirement. The shorter runs and training positions offered by autonomous trucking might be just what young drivers would prefer instead of the long-haul, sedentary lifestyle of traditional trucking.
As of now, there are roughly 3.5 million professional trucks drivers on the road in the US. At the current rate, employment of heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is projected to grow another 6 percent in the coming years resulting in a projected shortage of more than 174,000 drivers by 2026.3
1 https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2018/07/05/anyone-employed-as-a-driver-today-will-be-able-to-retire-as-a-driver/#7ad31a7950a2</1>
2 http://www.govtech.com/fs/transportation/Will-Robot-Drivers-Disrupt-the-Trucking-Industry.html
3 http://www.trucking.org/article/New%20Report%20Says-National-Shortage-of-Truck-Drivers-to-Reach-50,000-This-Year